Monday, 17 October 2011

CHINA Q3 GDP release tomorrow-Stay on the SIDELINES

Name Price Chg %Chg
FTSE 100 5436.7 -29.66 -0.54%
Dow Jones IA 11397 -247.49 -2.13%
NASDAQ 2614.92 -52.93 -1.98%
DAX 30 5859.43 -107.77 -1.81%
CAC 40 3166.06 -51.83 -1.61%
AEX 479.01 -8.39 -1.72%
GBP/USD 1.57 40/44 -0.01 -0.48%
GBP/EUR 1.1 46/63 0.01 0.53%
EUR/USD 1.37 33/34 -0.01 -1.00%
USD/CHF 0.89 93/95 0.01 0.81%
USD/JPY 76.7 99/14 -0.42 -0.55%
GBP/JPY 120. 88/95 -1.24 -1.02%
Gold $/oz 1671.42 -9.63 -0.57%
Silver $/oz 31.783 -0.42 -1.30%
Platinum $/oz 1548.75 1.50 0.10%
Palladium $/oz 615.25 -4.75 -0.77%
Brent Oil $/barrel 109.85 -2.62 -2.33%
WTI $/barrel 86.43 -0.79 -0.91%

Markets corrected somewhat today, the Dow dropping 250 points as Merkel stated that those hoping for a magic full solution to the Greek Debt issues in November would be disappointed. Technically the market was due a pull back, I was looking for more 100-150 points however..

Given the China GDP release tomorrow..If its on the downside I could see a potential drop back to 11,000's..and in the next week or 2 as earnings releases fade, and attention once again resumes on Merkel and debt issues, I think it's favourable to take profits at this point, and stay out of the market for now. An upside beat (or meeting of expectations even) by China however could take the Dow to around 11,700.However the downside being at least 400 points, the value bet is not there to go long. And profits should also be taken risk FX positions (long GBP/USD etc).

We will look to tomorrow to see how the market reacts to the news, and reassess.

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