Name Price Chg %Chg
FTSE 100 5436.7 -29.66 -0.54%
Dow Jones IA 11397 -247.49 -2.13%
NASDAQ 2614.92 -52.93 -1.98%
DAX 30 5859.43 -107.77 -1.81%
CAC 40 3166.06 -51.83 -1.61%
AEX 479.01 -8.39 -1.72%
GBP/USD 1.57 40/44 -0.01 -0.48%
GBP/EUR 1.1 46/63 0.01 0.53%
EUR/USD 1.37 33/34 -0.01 -1.00%
USD/CHF 0.89 93/95 0.01 0.81%
USD/JPY 76.7 99/14 -0.42 -0.55%
GBP/JPY 120. 88/95 -1.24 -1.02%
Gold $/oz 1671.42 -9.63 -0.57%
Silver $/oz 31.783 -0.42 -1.30%
Platinum $/oz 1548.75 1.50 0.10%
Palladium $/oz 615.25 -4.75 -0.77%
Brent Oil $/barrel 109.85 -2.62 -2.33%
WTI $/barrel 86.43 -0.79 -0.91%
Markets corrected somewhat today, the Dow dropping 250 points as Merkel stated that those hoping for a magic full solution to the Greek Debt issues in November would be disappointed. Technically the market was due a pull back, I was looking for more 100-150 points however..
Given the China GDP release tomorrow..If its on the downside I could see a potential drop back to 11,000's..and in the next week or 2 as earnings releases fade, and attention once again resumes on Merkel and debt issues, I think it's favourable to take profits at this point, and stay out of the market for now. An upside beat (or meeting of expectations even) by China however could take the Dow to around 11,700.However the downside being at least 400 points, the value bet is not there to go long. And profits should also be taken risk FX positions (long GBP/USD etc).
We will look to tomorrow to see how the market reacts to the news, and reassess.
Monday, 17 October 2011
Sunday, 16 October 2011
Market Update- Outlook Unchanged
Name Price Chg %Chg
FTSE 100 5466.36 62.98 1.17%
Dow Jones IA 11644.49 166.36 1.45%
NASDAQ 2667.85 47.61 1.82%
DAX 30 5967.2 52.36 0.89%
CAC 40 3217.89 30.95 0.97%
AEX 487.4 7.90 1.65%
GBP/USD 1.58 20/39 0.00 0.01%
GBP/EUR 1.14 11/21 0.00 0.20%
EUR/USD 1.38 69/75 -0.00 -0.04%
USD/CHF 0.89 17/34 0.00 0.02%
USD/JPY 77/02 -0.20 -0.26%
GBP/JPY 121. 81/22 -0.33 -0.27%
Gold $/oz 1679.3 -1.27 -0.08%
Silver $/oz 32.17 0.06 0.19%
Platinum $/oz 1545.18 16.18 1.06%
Palladium $/oz 620.75 27.25 4.59%
Brent Oil $/barrel 112.47 3.37 3.09%
WTI $/barrel 87.22 2.65 3.13%
Stay Long the dow, Short the dollar.
FTSE 100 5466.36 62.98 1.17%
Dow Jones IA 11644.49 166.36 1.45%
NASDAQ 2667.85 47.61 1.82%
DAX 30 5967.2 52.36 0.89%
CAC 40 3217.89 30.95 0.97%
AEX 487.4 7.90 1.65%
GBP/USD 1.58 20/39 0.00 0.01%
GBP/EUR 1.14 11/21 0.00 0.20%
EUR/USD 1.38 69/75 -0.00 -0.04%
USD/CHF 0.89 17/34 0.00 0.02%
USD/JPY 77/02 -0.20 -0.26%
GBP/JPY 121. 81/22 -0.33 -0.27%
Gold $/oz 1679.3 -1.27 -0.08%
Silver $/oz 32.17 0.06 0.19%
Platinum $/oz 1545.18 16.18 1.06%
Palladium $/oz 620.75 27.25 4.59%
Brent Oil $/barrel 112.47 3.37 3.09%
WTI $/barrel 87.22 2.65 3.13%
Stay Long the dow, Short the dollar.
Monday, 10 October 2011
Dow at 11,400-Alcoa earnings tomorrow-If you get Dow 11,200 BUY!
Name Price Chg %Chg
FTSE 100 5399 95.60 1.80%
Dow Jones IA 11433.18 330.06 2.97%
NASDAQ 2566.05 86.70 3.50%
DAX 30 5847.29 171.59 3.02%
CAC 40 3161.47 65.91 2.13%
AEX 471.77 6.65 1.43%
GBP/USD 1.565 38/57 0.01 0.67%
GBP/EUR 1.14 77/86 -0.01 -1.09%
EUR/USD 1.36 34/38 0.02 1.74%
USD/CHF 0.90 44/47 -0.02 -2.32%
USD/JPY 76. 64/68 -0.15 -0.20%
GBP/JPY 119. 97/.1 0.56 0.47%
Gold $/oz 1681.33 37.48 2.28%
Silver $/oz 32.23 0.56 1.76%
Platinum $/oz 1523.25 28.25 1.89%
Palladium $/oz 613.25 29.30 5.02%
Brent Oil $/barrel 109.15 3.38 3.20%
WTI $/barrel 85.62 2.93 3.54%
10-Year 2.125 08/15/2021 100-13¾ / 2.08
2-Year 0.125 09/30/2013 99-21¾ / 0.29
US Dollar Index 77.62
Alcoa due to release tomorrow, if earnings are poorer than expected. WHICH I HOPE (sorry Alcoa), and the Dow then sells off initially, it'll be a great buying opportunity (ideally around 11200-11270). The market sometimes acts like Alcoa is some sort of indicator for coming releases and gets paniced into selling..
Furthermore, GBP/USD has hit its medium term target I set last week, of 1.565. And with rumours now building of potential for QE3. Long Dow Short Dollar looks good for now.
Markets were lifted today by news that Sarkozy and Merkel will release a consolidated plan of Action for the eurozone at the start of November. So until then, with only earnings on the board, and reduced estimates by analysts influenced by the last quarters market declines and poorer than expetced economic indicators, odds for upside gains in equities continue to look good.
FTSE 100 5399 95.60 1.80%
Dow Jones IA 11433.18 330.06 2.97%
NASDAQ 2566.05 86.70 3.50%
DAX 30 5847.29 171.59 3.02%
CAC 40 3161.47 65.91 2.13%
AEX 471.77 6.65 1.43%
GBP/USD 1.565 38/57 0.01 0.67%
GBP/EUR 1.14 77/86 -0.01 -1.09%
EUR/USD 1.36 34/38 0.02 1.74%
USD/CHF 0.90 44/47 -0.02 -2.32%
USD/JPY 76. 64/68 -0.15 -0.20%
GBP/JPY 119. 97/.1 0.56 0.47%
Gold $/oz 1681.33 37.48 2.28%
Silver $/oz 32.23 0.56 1.76%
Platinum $/oz 1523.25 28.25 1.89%
Palladium $/oz 613.25 29.30 5.02%
Brent Oil $/barrel 109.15 3.38 3.20%
WTI $/barrel 85.62 2.93 3.54%
10-Year 2.125 08/15/2021 100-13¾ / 2.08
2-Year 0.125 09/30/2013 99-21¾ / 0.29
US Dollar Index 77.62
Alcoa due to release tomorrow, if earnings are poorer than expected. WHICH I HOPE (sorry Alcoa), and the Dow then sells off initially, it'll be a great buying opportunity (ideally around 11200-11270). The market sometimes acts like Alcoa is some sort of indicator for coming releases and gets paniced into selling..
Furthermore, GBP/USD has hit its medium term target I set last week, of 1.565. And with rumours now building of potential for QE3. Long Dow Short Dollar looks good for now.
Markets were lifted today by news that Sarkozy and Merkel will release a consolidated plan of Action for the eurozone at the start of November. So until then, with only earnings on the board, and reduced estimates by analysts influenced by the last quarters market declines and poorer than expetced economic indicators, odds for upside gains in equities continue to look good.
Sunday, 9 October 2011
NFP beats expectations
NFP coming in at 103K jobs added beating expectations of 57K, as well as this August payrolls were revised upwards, resulting in equities maintaining there upward surge from the previous days announcement of BOE's easing program. We also saw a rally in EUR/USD and GBP/USD with GBP/USD making a high of 15646 and the Dow made an intraday high of 11245
Name Price Chg %Chg
FTSE 100 5303.4 12.14 0.23%
Dow Jones IA 11103.12 -20.21 -0.18%
NASDAQ 2479.35 -27.47 -1.10%
DAX 30 5675.7 30.45 0.54%
CAC 40 3095.56 20.19 0.66%
AEX 465.12 -1.14 -0.24%
GBP/USD 1.55 41/47 -0.00 -0.11%
GBP/EUR 1.16 34/44 0.00 0.08%
EUR/USD 1.33 55/57 -0.00 -0.15%
USD/CHF 0.92 81/89 0.00 0.14%
USD/JPY 76. 72/75 0.01 0.01%
GBP/JPY 119. 22/33 -0.17 -0.14%
Gold $/oz 1637.9 0.30 0.02%
Silver $/oz 31.144 0.00 0.00%
Platinum $/oz 1486.25 -27.75 -1.83%
Palladium $/oz 585.55 -17.95 -2.97%
Brent Oil $/barrel 105.77 0.53 0.50%
WTI $/barrel 82.69 0.29 0.35%
Earnings season due to commence with Aloca's release on Wednesday, further upside momentum likely to continue, (in the absence of a Greek Default, or a solution which does not meet market expectations is announced).
Name Price Chg %Chg
FTSE 100 5303.4 12.14 0.23%
Dow Jones IA 11103.12 -20.21 -0.18%
NASDAQ 2479.35 -27.47 -1.10%
DAX 30 5675.7 30.45 0.54%
CAC 40 3095.56 20.19 0.66%
AEX 465.12 -1.14 -0.24%
GBP/USD 1.55 41/47 -0.00 -0.11%
GBP/EUR 1.16 34/44 0.00 0.08%
EUR/USD 1.33 55/57 -0.00 -0.15%
USD/CHF 0.92 81/89 0.00 0.14%
USD/JPY 76. 72/75 0.01 0.01%
GBP/JPY 119. 22/33 -0.17 -0.14%
Gold $/oz 1637.9 0.30 0.02%
Silver $/oz 31.144 0.00 0.00%
Platinum $/oz 1486.25 -27.75 -1.83%
Palladium $/oz 585.55 -17.95 -2.97%
Brent Oil $/barrel 105.77 0.53 0.50%
WTI $/barrel 82.69 0.29 0.35%
Earnings season due to commence with Aloca's release on Wednesday, further upside momentum likely to continue, (in the absence of a Greek Default, or a solution which does not meet market expectations is announced).
Thursday, 6 October 2011
Non Farm Pay Rolls
Name Price Chg %Chg
FTSE 100 5291.26 189.09 3.71%
Dow Jones IA 11123.33 183.38 1.68%
NASDAQ 2506.82 46.31 1.88%
DAX 30 5645.25 172.22 3.15%
CAC 40 3075.37 101.47 3.41%
AEX 466.26 12.96
GBP/USD 1.54 41/46 -0.00 -0.15%
GBP/EUR 1.14 91/95 -0.01 -0.81%
EUR/USD 1.34 36/37 0.01 0.70%
USD/CHF 0.92 07/11 -0.00 -0.27%
USD/JPY 76. 63/66 -0.18 -0.23%
GBP/JPY 118.3 32/37 -0.44 -0.37%
Gold $/oz 1651.22 14.41 0.88%
Silver $/oz 31.938 1.64 5.42%
Platinum $/oz 1505.25 37.50 2.55%
Palladium $/oz 601.75 31.50 5.52%
Brent Oil $/barrel 105.6 3.16 3.08%
WTI $/barrel 82.49 2.83 3.55%
Having touched a low of 10400 yesterday the Dow rallied up through the day after an article in the FT iterating further consensus for a proactive resolution being reached on the debt situation in Europe.
Equities were given a further boost today, with the BOE announcing a 2nd quantitative easing plan, of a further £75 billion. With the FTSE currently at 5315. I also expect this to ACTUALLY BE BULLISH for the pound.
Given intial jobless claims were worse than expected today, and did not seem to phase markets (with more important BOE announcement) I think a worse than expected Non Farm Pay rolls result tomorrow would not be particularly bearish! I would anticipate support at Dow 11,000, and with earnings season due to commence, I think the potential exists for the Long Dow Short dollar trade to recommence into next week.
Medium Term trade at this point:
1)
Note how initially the market sold off sharply with the announcement. With the usual reaction (traders selling due to perception of increased supply of Pounds in the future, with QE 2)..followed by the realisation that this would potentially lead to an outpeforming British economy (as congress looking unliekly to show support for further QE measures in the US), as the pound pared its losses.
Buy GBP/USD at 15436 Stop 15150 Target 16000
Over medium term (next month)
Over shorter term (next week), could go for 15250 stop, and 15650 target
2)
NFP:
Long The Dow (over the next week) Look to buy into the Dow, tomorrow, prior to NFP, to avg a price around 11070, to target 11300 by close, and potentially 11500 next week if earnings beat.
Stop to be restricted to 10800.
Potential Trade Ideas:
Even though equities, could stage a substantial rally in the coming weeks, I think they will be lagged by commodities, owing to continuing fears over china, so I see the potential to combine a long risk trade such as long GBP/USD or long the Dow even, with shorting a commodity based dollar pair, potentially go long USD/CAD however it has rallied substantially recently, so I would be waiting for a pull back to close 1.02 before going in.
Given the potential for Gold to rally with a negative market response to the Greek bailout related news, I see good potential to Buy gold, and SELL commodity based currencies.
FTSE 100 5291.26 189.09 3.71%
Dow Jones IA 11123.33 183.38 1.68%
NASDAQ 2506.82 46.31 1.88%
DAX 30 5645.25 172.22 3.15%
CAC 40 3075.37 101.47 3.41%
AEX 466.26 12.96
GBP/USD 1.54 41/46 -0.00 -0.15%
GBP/EUR 1.14 91/95 -0.01 -0.81%
EUR/USD 1.34 36/37 0.01 0.70%
USD/CHF 0.92 07/11 -0.00 -0.27%
USD/JPY 76. 63/66 -0.18 -0.23%
GBP/JPY 118.3 32/37 -0.44 -0.37%
Gold $/oz 1651.22 14.41 0.88%
Silver $/oz 31.938 1.64 5.42%
Platinum $/oz 1505.25 37.50 2.55%
Palladium $/oz 601.75 31.50 5.52%
Brent Oil $/barrel 105.6 3.16 3.08%
WTI $/barrel 82.49 2.83 3.55%
Having touched a low of 10400 yesterday the Dow rallied up through the day after an article in the FT iterating further consensus for a proactive resolution being reached on the debt situation in Europe.
Equities were given a further boost today, with the BOE announcing a 2nd quantitative easing plan, of a further £75 billion. With the FTSE currently at 5315. I also expect this to ACTUALLY BE BULLISH for the pound.
Given intial jobless claims were worse than expected today, and did not seem to phase markets (with more important BOE announcement) I think a worse than expected Non Farm Pay rolls result tomorrow would not be particularly bearish! I would anticipate support at Dow 11,000, and with earnings season due to commence, I think the potential exists for the Long Dow Short dollar trade to recommence into next week.
Medium Term trade at this point:
1)
Note how initially the market sold off sharply with the announcement. With the usual reaction (traders selling due to perception of increased supply of Pounds in the future, with QE 2)..followed by the realisation that this would potentially lead to an outpeforming British economy (as congress looking unliekly to show support for further QE measures in the US), as the pound pared its losses.
Buy GBP/USD at 15436 Stop 15150 Target 16000
Over medium term (next month)
Over shorter term (next week), could go for 15250 stop, and 15650 target
2)
NFP:
Long The Dow (over the next week) Look to buy into the Dow, tomorrow, prior to NFP, to avg a price around 11070, to target 11300 by close, and potentially 11500 next week if earnings beat.
Stop to be restricted to 10800.
Potential Trade Ideas:
Even though equities, could stage a substantial rally in the coming weeks, I think they will be lagged by commodities, owing to continuing fears over china, so I see the potential to combine a long risk trade such as long GBP/USD or long the Dow even, with shorting a commodity based dollar pair, potentially go long USD/CAD however it has rallied substantially recently, so I would be waiting for a pull back to close 1.02 before going in.
Given the potential for Gold to rally with a negative market response to the Greek bailout related news, I see good potential to Buy gold, and SELL commodity based currencies.
Monday, 3 October 2011
Still on the sidelines
The Dow currently hovering at 10590, momentum clearly to the downside, with investors fearing a Greek Default (with further news making it less likely Greece will be able to stick to Austerity measures). Members of the Troika likely to know there decision will be crucial to potentially restoring calm to markets. With BOE, ECB announcements due this week as well as NFP, I am staying on the sidelines!
FTSE 100 5075.5 -52.98 -1.03%
Dow Jones IA 10655.3 -258.08 -2.36%
NASDAQ 2335.83 -79.57 -3.29%
DAX 30 5376.7 -125.32 -2.28%
CAC 40 2926.83 -55.13 -1.85%
AEX 459.45 -6.49 -1.39%
GBP/USD 1.54 21/38 -0.01 -0.96%
GBP/EUR 1. 17/08 0.00 0.40%
EUR/USD 1.31 72/75 -0.02 -1.38%
USD/CHF 0.92 08/17 0.01 1.24%
USD/JPY 76.5 73/03 -0.62 -0.80%
GBP/JPY 118. 09/15 -2.10 -1.75%
Gold $/oz 1660 31.05 1.91%
Silver $/oz 30.422 0.04 0.12%
Platinum $/oz 1505.5 -16.25 -1.07%
Palladium $/oz 582 -27.00 -4.43%
Brent Oil $/barrel 100.79 -1.30 -1.27%
WTI $/barrel 76.07 -2.44 -3.11%
Sunday, 2 October 2011
Stay On the Sidelines
FTSE 100 5128.48 -68.36 -1.32%
Dow Jones IA 10913.38 -240.60 -2.16%
NASDAQ 2415.4 -65.36 -2.63%
DAX 30 5502.02 -137.56 -2.44%
CAC 40 2981.96 -45.69 -1.51%
AEX 465.94 -7.68 -1.62%
GBP/USD 1.55 69/88 -0.00 -0.01%
GBP/EUR 1.16 69/79 0.00 0.28%
EUR/USD 1.33 46/52 -0.00 -0.31%
USD/CHF 0.91 03/15 0.00 0.30%
USD/JPY 77. 15/79 0.11 0.14%
GBP/JPY 120. 16/26 0.23 0.19%
Gold $/oz 1623.7 0.00 0.00%
Silver $/oz 29.911 0.00 0.00%
Platinum $/oz 1517.95 -7.30 -0.48%
Palladium $/oz 605.88 -12.12 -1.96%
Brent Oil $/barrel 102.09 -2.46 -2.35%
WTI $/barrel 78.51 -4.25 -5.14%
The Dow finishing lower, with mixed news releases and traders likely to be on the sidelines awaiting clarity over what the resolution will be regarding the next tranche of the Greek bailout fund, and possible new procedures put into place to alleviate market fears over Spain, Italy etc.
Operation twist also providing anticipation for whether the coming BOE and ECB rate decisions will be dovish (and the possibility of further QE in the UK will also be debated by markets).
With non farm pay rolls due for release also next week, I am choosing to stay on the sidelines for now. Market sentiment seems pessimistic. News of a large TARP like stability fund for the Euro Zone may trigger an initital 300-400 point rally, however as long as these recession fears and eocnomic indicators dont tick up, the market may remain challenged until earnings season kicks in mid October.
Dow Jones IA 10913.38 -240.60 -2.16%
NASDAQ 2415.4 -65.36 -2.63%
DAX 30 5502.02 -137.56 -2.44%
CAC 40 2981.96 -45.69 -1.51%
AEX 465.94 -7.68 -1.62%
GBP/USD 1.55 69/88 -0.00 -0.01%
GBP/EUR 1.16 69/79 0.00 0.28%
EUR/USD 1.33 46/52 -0.00 -0.31%
USD/CHF 0.91 03/15 0.00 0.30%
USD/JPY 77. 15/79 0.11 0.14%
GBP/JPY 120. 16/26 0.23 0.19%
Gold $/oz 1623.7 0.00 0.00%
Silver $/oz 29.911 0.00 0.00%
Platinum $/oz 1517.95 -7.30 -0.48%
Palladium $/oz 605.88 -12.12 -1.96%
Brent Oil $/barrel 102.09 -2.46 -2.35%
WTI $/barrel 78.51 -4.25 -5.14%
The Dow finishing lower, with mixed news releases and traders likely to be on the sidelines awaiting clarity over what the resolution will be regarding the next tranche of the Greek bailout fund, and possible new procedures put into place to alleviate market fears over Spain, Italy etc.
Operation twist also providing anticipation for whether the coming BOE and ECB rate decisions will be dovish (and the possibility of further QE in the UK will also be debated by markets).
With non farm pay rolls due for release also next week, I am choosing to stay on the sidelines for now. Market sentiment seems pessimistic. News of a large TARP like stability fund for the Euro Zone may trigger an initital 300-400 point rally, however as long as these recession fears and eocnomic indicators dont tick up, the market may remain challenged until earnings season kicks in mid October.
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