Another mediocre week in the market, with the dow ranging between 9800-10100. The market bounced on Tuesday with news that Germany would step in to "bail out" Greece, however the plans lacked detail and were quickly withdrawn, with Germany's economy having performed unexpectedly poorly in the final quarter (flat GDP results).
Quotes (end of week)
FTSE 5172
Dow 10145
US Index 8050
EUR/USD 13634
Gold 1093.7
GBP/USD 15700
China raising reserve requirements by 0.5 bps also flattened out the Tuesday rebound in commodities, with most mining stocks ending the week pretty much flat.
Week ahead:
Significant releases to come from the UK, with CPI (-0.6% foreceast), UK unemployment (7.8% forecast, -10K job losses), and the Bank of England Minutes. I think UK unemployment is likely to have bottomed,and CPI to continue its inflationary trend from last month. I think GBPUSD could target the 1.6 region.
With fears over Greece likely to continue unless a clear plan of action is issued, relating to the IMF or some other bail out plan, there is likely to be only a short term, bounce in the Euro, and Dow.
I think the possiblity of further negative news relating to Italy, Spain, Portugal as well as Dubai (for which clear plans have not been revealed) the market is likely to remain ranged at best, but with all these uncertainties, I must remain bearish.
Greece and the property market:
I have been thinking whether, ironically, the situation with Greece and a resumption in risk aversion could be benefical to the American economy. With continuing fears we have seen yields on treasuries fall, this month, the 30YR has gone from 4.71 to 4.65%. With the possibility further risk aversion, I am interested in the possibility of a lower yield 30 YR treasuries being helpful in stimulating more buyer demand in the American property market, in the below sort of chain:
Eurozone problems=>Lower Yields on 30Yr=>Greater affordability of mortgages=>Increased demand in property market=>reduced foreclosures =>reduced "toxicity" of the MBS=>Greater excess reserves in banks=>Banks lend more freely=>Increased demand in property, hiring and so on..
However, that is more just a peculiarity I wanted to mention.
Week ahead my strategy would be to go long GBPUSD, and slightly short Eurusd (to beta hedge)
And long FTSE, slightly less short Dow (as a beta hedge).
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