Dow breaks 50 day moving average- Reversal? (Long FTSE, Short Dow, Long Dollar)

The Dow broke its 50 day moving average on Thursday, due to a combination of news of the Obama plan to halt propietary trading activities at banks (meaning a significant decline in their revenue), as well as the ongoing bank tax plan, and continuing impact of tighening of lending at Chinese Banks.

Since around October though, the Dow has been running out of juice, with the chart seeming to form a dome shape. In order for the dow to maintain its rally since March, we require a catalyst in the form of topline growth from Q4 earnings. So far, in the earnings season, it hasnt come, and if there is no sign of significant progress on this I think we may be in for a reversal.

I think that Bernanke most likely will not raise rates early as he is a "scholar" of the depression, and says that was one of the shortcomings of the 1930s Era.
On the other hand if top line growth comes in, and yields start rising again (as they have been), rates going up sooner, could lead to more foreclosures, so lower consumer spending (for those using their homes as equity).

Also with current uncertainty regarding regulation reforms (bank taxes, and the likely cost increase to their customers), health care , I dont see large scale business hiring, and even if unemployment does bottom, a lack of hiring, and improvement is likely to reinforce a reversal.

Week ahead:
Bernankes reelection is unconfirmed as of yet, requiring the approval of at least 1 of 4 republican board members to make it through. If it does so happen that he is not reelected, this is likely to cause uncertainty among traders who were relying on Benanke keeping the cheap money rally going.

However with the lack of this, and lack of any other bearish news this week, of key important wil be the USD GDP news. Forecasts currently at 4.2%. There is a clear dichotomy in my view between stimulus induced news results, such as GDP, and the reality of the economic situation such as Non Farm Pay rolls.
No doubt GDP will meet expectations, or roundabouts, however what will be key will be if the Dow rallies off it. If the Dow starts selling off, on "good news" then we know the reversal is on, and the general sentiment is bearish.

We also have the FOMC rates decision coming up this week. I think Bernankes likely to maintain his previous rhetoric of rates remaining low for an "extended period", given rate increases were to be on the back of clear evidence of a stabilisation/recovery in unemployment.

I am looking for the Dow break below 10,000 within the coming weeks, particularly around the release of Jan payrolls.

My overall macro strategy to benefit from this would be to go Long the FTSE, and short the Dow (over the period of the next month).

The FTSE closed the week at 5217, and the Dow at 10202. However the FTSE has been pulled down largely due to the fall in share price of banks and miners (as per the Obama regulations, and Chinese tightening of Bank lending). However, with CPI coming in at 2.9% last week for the UK, I think it is likely that UK GDP will beat expectations this week, as finally the QE induced recovery begins to kick in.I also think unemployment in the UK is likely to have bottomed.
My view on commodities stocks are that they are likely to range for the next two weeks. There is alot of uncertainty out there, about rates, the dollar, the Chinese economy, ultimately even good earnings (as was the case with GS) will prove difficult to overcome market sentiment at the moment.

I see the dollar getting stronger due to risk aversion (rather than market expectations of rate increases), and US 2 yr yields falling. I do not see any significant rally in Gold til perhaps March, if the US decides to continue QE.