NFP weaker than expected at 100k jobs added, Dow
sold off, currently at 11639.
Market looks technically weaker like it wants to
retest 11400's.
Dollar sold off on result , but regained
strength after weaker than expected Euro Zone
data.
Eur/Usd at 12912 at present.
Alcoa earnings due today. Key will be to
see what dynamic is, whether the dollar moves
with the Dow or regains the stronger negative
correlation seen after qe2 began to be priced in.
Monday, 10 January 2011
Thursday, 6 January 2011
NFP-Stay long the dow-Time to Buy the Dollar again?
Once again, a brief post.
Quotes:
Dow 11697
EUR/USD 12999
GBP/USD 15467
USD Index 80.85
Crude 8814
US 2Yr 0.66
US 10Yr
Gold 1371
Key resistance for EUR/USD 1295, having just broken 13000, the common reaction, everyone goes short, and it pops back, same as in November. However having already tested 12990 in Nov, a strong NFP, and continuing fears over the Eurozone situation, with yields on Spanish, Irish and Portuguese bonds rising, it seems the odds favour a break below 12950, initially to 12750, and then long awaited retest of 1.25 from earlier in 2010.
Consensus for NFP is 150K added. Even significant underperformance of this result, say 50K added, any sell off in the dow (a sell off of more than 75 points is unlikely in my opinion), however any sell off such that the Dow does not break below 11300 is a buy, with earnings season due to start (and in my opinion once again likely to outperform estimates.
Potential risks are that the ratio of bulls to bears at present is significantly high, which usually does call for a pullback, however with Q4 earnings on the horizon, I must remain bullish.
Seeing the Dollars reaction to NFP, a break of th eindex above 81, is likely to be a buy, I would start to accumulate, and if the Dollar does continue to rally with the dow into earnings season, then I would take this as a significant indication of the trend to continue into the year, and look to add to my position.
I see the potential for Gold to be shorted into this result, to target 1330 by close, as many who placed longs in the 1400 region earlier this week, will be forced to close out their positions as the dollar rallies.
Quotes:
Dow 11697
EUR/USD 12999
GBP/USD 15467
USD Index 80.85
Crude 8814
US 2Yr 0.66
US 10Yr
Gold 1371
Key resistance for EUR/USD 1295, having just broken 13000, the common reaction, everyone goes short, and it pops back, same as in November. However having already tested 12990 in Nov, a strong NFP, and continuing fears over the Eurozone situation, with yields on Spanish, Irish and Portuguese bonds rising, it seems the odds favour a break below 12950, initially to 12750, and then long awaited retest of 1.25 from earlier in 2010.
Consensus for NFP is 150K added. Even significant underperformance of this result, say 50K added, any sell off in the dow (a sell off of more than 75 points is unlikely in my opinion), however any sell off such that the Dow does not break below 11300 is a buy, with earnings season due to start (and in my opinion once again likely to outperform estimates.
Potential risks are that the ratio of bulls to bears at present is significantly high, which usually does call for a pullback, however with Q4 earnings on the horizon, I must remain bullish.
Seeing the Dollars reaction to NFP, a break of th eindex above 81, is likely to be a buy, I would start to accumulate, and if the Dollar does continue to rally with the dow into earnings season, then I would take this as a significant indication of the trend to continue into the year, and look to add to my position.
I see the potential for Gold to be shorted into this result, to target 1330 by close, as many who placed longs in the 1400 region earlier this week, will be forced to close out their positions as the dollar rallies.
Tuesday, 4 January 2011
Stay long
FTSE 6011
Dow 11676
Eurusd 13398
Ok firstly let me apologize for the brevity of this post.
Markets opened well today ftse up over 100 pts.
Trades:
long ftse at 6011 stop 5770 target 6400
duration 2-3 weeks
exit conditions: eurozone debt news takes prominence.
Although this is unlikely with earnings set to come out
and beat estimates in my opinion.
What I'm looking for:
seems the dollar will be sold as traders long the
dow, looking for eurusd to break above 13500 for
confirmation. Cable at 15600 pending performance today
may be looking for 16000.
Yield curve: will be looking for the curve to steepen as inflation
expectations rise, while short end up to 2yr yields to move up less
as supported by fed buying.
Usd/jpy may be a good technical long to support a short
eur/usd position.
Dow 11676
Eurusd 13398
Ok firstly let me apologize for the brevity of this post.
Markets opened well today ftse up over 100 pts.
Trades:
long ftse at 6011 stop 5770 target 6400
duration 2-3 weeks
exit conditions: eurozone debt news takes prominence.
Although this is unlikely with earnings set to come out
and beat estimates in my opinion.
What I'm looking for:
seems the dollar will be sold as traders long the
dow, looking for eurusd to break above 13500 for
confirmation. Cable at 15600 pending performance today
may be looking for 16000.
Yield curve: will be looking for the curve to steepen as inflation
expectations rise, while short end up to 2yr yields to move up less
as supported by fed buying.
Usd/jpy may be a good technical long to support a short
eur/usd position.
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